Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrai
Reading the odds on this market
At 2.1¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 2.1% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 48.
$10 on YES buys about 476 contracts that pay $476.19 if it happens; $10 on NO at 97.9¢ buys about 10.2 that pay $10.21 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 2.1% if it wins, with the money locked up for 91 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 8.9% a year.
$97,314 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $13,812 still riding on the outcome, making it number 31 by volume of the 219 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,314) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,812) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 60¢ | $989,911 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,633 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | 87¢ | $99,382 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrai
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 91 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,314 in total traded volume and $13,812 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.