Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
What resolves this contract
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or
Reading the odds on this market
At 3.2¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 3.2% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 31.
$10 on YES buys about 308 contracts that pay $307.69 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.8¢ buys about 10.3 that pay $10.34 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 3.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until October 1, 2026; that works out to about 17273967.1% a year.
$968,928 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $48,406 still riding on the outcome, making it number 11 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($968,928) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($48,406) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $998,561 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11¢ | $991,012 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 15¢ | $99,633 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $968,928 in total traded volume and $48,406 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.