OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of
Reading the odds on this market
At 72.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 72.5% chance this happens, roughly 2.6 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 14 contracts that pay $13.79 if it happens; $10 on NO at 27.5¢ buys about 36.4 that pay $36.36 if it does not.
$1,055,377 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $4,085 still riding on the outcome, making it number 130 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 72¢ means the market is pricing in a 72.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,055,377) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,085) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 3¢ | $40,469,827 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | 2¢ | $7,961,184 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | 7¢ | $2,426,387 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 453 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 72¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 28¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 72¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 72.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,055,377 in total traded volume and $4,085 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.