SpaceX Starship 15th launch: Before Nov 13, 2026?
What resolves this contract
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX Outcome verified from SpaceX .
Reading the odds on this market
At 19.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 19.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 53 contracts that pay $52.63 if it happens; $10 on NO at 81.0¢ buys about 12.3 that pay $12.35 if it does not.
$3 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 353 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 19¢ means the market is pricing in a 19.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($3) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $14,981,748 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | $13,357,262 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 13¢ | $10,175,254 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX Outcome verified from SpaceX .
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-12, 56 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 19¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 81¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 19¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 19.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $3 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.