Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO: Morgan Stanley?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the ord
Reading the odds on this market
At 82.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 82.0% chance this happens, roughly 4.6 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $12.20 if it happens; $10 on NO at 18.0¢ buys about 55.6 that pay $55.56 if it does not.
$11 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 333 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 82¢ means the market is pricing in a 82.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($11) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $14,981,748 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | $13,357,262 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 13¢ | $10,175,254 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the ord
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 441 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 82¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 82¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 82.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $11 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.