EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026: 30M+?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month o
Reading the odds on this market
At 95.8¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 95.8% chance this happens, roughly 22.5 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.44 if it happens; $10 on NO at 4.2¢ buys about 235.3 that pay $235.29 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 4.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until November 1, 2026; that works out to about 766203761.1% a year.
$31 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 295 by volume of the 357 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 95¢ means the market is pricing in a 95.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($31) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $15,993,377 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 97¢ | $9,320,765 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1¢ | $5,324,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month o
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 95¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 4¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 95¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 95.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $31 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.