Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 6.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 4.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 4.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 25.
$10 on YES buys about 250 contracts that pay $250.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.0¢ buys about 10.4 that pay $10.42 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 4.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 135 days until March 17, 2027; that works out to about 11.7% a year.
Over the last 31 daily readings the YES price moved down 46.0 points, trading between 3.5¢ and 50.0¢.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($0) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 12¢ | $16,134,820 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 96¢ | $9,368,108 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1¢ | $5,331,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 6.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-03-17, 135 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $0 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.