Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 25, 12:00 PM ET and October 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found
Reading the odds on this market
At 21.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 21.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 47 contracts that pay $46.51 if it happens; $10 on NO at 78.5¢ buys about 12.7 that pay $12.74 if it does not.
$9,839 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $210 still riding on the outcome, making it number 107 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 21¢ means the market is pricing in a 21.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,839) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($210) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $96,901 |
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 4¢ | $9,994 |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 5¢ | $9,941 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 25, 12:00 PM ET and October 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-02, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 21¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 21¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 21.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,839 in total traded volume and $210 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.