Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.3¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.3% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 19.
$10 on YES buys about 189 contracts that pay $188.68 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.7¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.56 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 5.6% if it wins, with the money locked up for 10 days until October 10, 2026; that works out to about 629.8% a year.
$9,941 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $3,184 still riding on the outcome, making it number 68 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.3% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,941) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,184) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $96,901 |
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 4¢ | $9,994 |
| Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | 38¢ | $9,906 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-10, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.3% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,941 in total traded volume and $3,184 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.