culture

Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-01-01 Volume$96,196 Open Interest$9,066
YES
6¢
Implied probability: 6.5%
NO
93¢
Implied probability: 93.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 6¢ · High 6¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
6¢
NO Price
93¢
Total Volume
$96,196
Open Interest
$9,066
Expiration
2027-01-01
Days Left
95
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment

Reading the odds on this market

At 6.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 6.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 15.

$10 on YES buys about 154 contracts that pay $153.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 93.5¢ buys about 10.7 that pay $10.70 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 7.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 95 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 29.5% a year.

$96,196 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $9,066 still riding on the outcome, making it number 41 by volume of the 204 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,196) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,066) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 95 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,196 in total traded volume and $9,066 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-28. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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