Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a po
Reading the odds on this market
At 51.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 51.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 20 contracts that pay $19.61 if it happens; $10 on NO at 49.0¢ buys about 20.4 that pay $20.41 if it does not.
$9,691 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $412 still riding on the outcome, making it number 150 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 51¢ means the market is pricing in a 51.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,691) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($412) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $96,901 |
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 4¢ | $9,994 |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 5¢ | $9,941 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a po
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 93 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 51¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 49¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 51¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 51.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,691 in total traded volume and $412 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.