Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not ap
Reading the odds on this market
At 90.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 90.5% chance this happens, roughly 9.5 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $11.05 if it happens; $10 on NO at 9.5¢ buys about 105.3 that pay $105.26 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 10.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 3 days until October 4, 2026; that works out to about 18811375.6% a year.
$99,893 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $57,672 still riding on the outcome, making it number 13 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 90¢ means the market is pricing in a 90.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,893) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($57,672) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 59¢ | $972,255 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 16¢ | $99,633 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | 87¢ | $99,382 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not ap
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 90¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 9¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 90¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 90.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,893 in total traded volume and $57,672 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.