Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 1
Reading the odds on this market
At 46.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 46.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 2.
$10 on YES buys about 22 contracts that pay $21.51 if it happens; $10 on NO at 53.5¢ buys about 18.7 that pay $18.69 if it does not.
$9,726 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $23,364 still riding on the outcome, making it number 139 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 46¢ means the market is pricing in a 46.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,726) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($23,364) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $998,561 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11¢ | $991,012 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | 3¢ | $968,928 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 1
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 93 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 46¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 53¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 46¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 46.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,726 in total traded volume and $23,364 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.