AI bubble burst in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC
Reading the odds on this market
At 7.4¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.4% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 14.
$10 on YES buys about 135 contracts that pay $135.14 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.6¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.80 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 8.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 88 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 37.6% a year.
$2,426,387 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $64,410 still riding on the outcome, making it number 95 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($2,426,387) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($64,410) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 3¢ | $40,469,827 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | 2¢ | $7,961,184 |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | 5¢ | $2,401,250 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 88 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 93¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $2,426,387 in total traded volume and $64,410 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.