Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the y
Reading the odds on this market
At 22.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 22.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 44 contracts that pay $44.44 if it happens; $10 on NO at 77.5¢ buys about 12.9 that pay $12.90 if it does not.
$110,210 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $41,690 still riding on the outcome, making it number 146 by volume of the 380 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 22¢ means the market is pricing in a 22.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($110,210) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($41,690) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $67,114,239 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,482,005 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,317,918 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the y
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 50 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 22¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 22¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 22.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $110,210 in total traded volume and $41,690 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.