Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the
Reading the odds on this market
At 25.6¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 25.6% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 39 contracts that pay $39.06 if it happens; $10 on NO at 74.4¢ buys about 13.4 that pay $13.44 if it does not.
$1,432,034 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $39,508 still riding on the outcome, making it number 119 by volume of the 224 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 25¢ means the market is pricing in a 25.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,432,034) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($39,508) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,413,954 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $7,655,296 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,460,391 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-04-01, 174 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 25¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 25¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 25.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,432,034 in total traded volume and $39,508 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.