Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w
Reading the odds on this market
At 80.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 80.5% chance this happens, roughly 4.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $12.42 if it happens; $10 on NO at 19.5¢ buys about 51.3 that pay $51.28 if it does not.
$98,154 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $8,871 still riding on the outcome, making it number 26 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 80¢ means the market is pricing in a 80.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,154) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,871) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 2¢ | $998,638 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,706 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 1¢ | $98,478 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 31 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 80¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 19¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 80¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 80.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,154 in total traded volume and $8,871 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.