Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Sonnet model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not quali
Reading the odds on this market
At 8.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 8.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 12.
$10 on YES buys about 125 contracts that pay $125.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.0¢ buys about 10.9 that pay $10.87 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 8.7% if it wins, with the money locked up for 98 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 36.4% a year.
$9,642 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $2,544 still riding on the outcome, making it number 147 by volume of the 210 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 8¢ means the market is pricing in a 8.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,642) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,544) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $997,498 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,298 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 61¢ | $96,338 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Sonnet model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not quali
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 98 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 8¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 8¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 8.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,642 in total traded volume and $2,544 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.