Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and
Reading the odds on this market
At 17.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 17.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 6.
$10 on YES buys about 59 contracts that pay $58.82 if it happens; $10 on NO at 83.0¢ buys about 12.0 that pay $12.05 if it does not.
$9,891 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $942 still riding on the outcome, making it number 93 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 17¢ means the market is pricing in a 17.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,891) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($942) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 2¢ | $998,638 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,706 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 1¢ | $98,478 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-24, 23 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 17¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 83¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 17¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 17.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,891 in total traded volume and $942 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.