Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
What resolves this contract
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.
Reading the odds on this market
At 1.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 1.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 100.
$10 on YES buys about 1,000 contracts that pay $1,000.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 99.0¢ buys about 10.1 that pay $10.10 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 1.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 24 days until October 29, 2026; that works out to about 16.5% a year.
$4,099,748 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $870,943 still riding on the outcome, making it number 67 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($4,099,748) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($870,943) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 18¢ | $14,192,418 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 95¢ | $8,789,386 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 82¢ | $7,381,023 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-29, 24 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $4,099,748 in total traded volume and $870,943 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.