Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by
Reading the odds on this market
At 20.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 20.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 49 contracts that pay $48.78 if it happens; $10 on NO at 79.5¢ buys about 12.6 that pay $12.58 if it does not.
$9,684 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $20,350 still riding on the outcome, making it number 123 by volume of the 203 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 20¢ means the market is pricing in a 20.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,684) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($20,350) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,678,408 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 36¢ | $98,151 |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | 5¢ | $9,968 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-07-01, 280 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 20¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 80¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 20¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 20.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,684 in total traded volume and $20,350 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.