Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this marke
Reading the odds on this market
At 52.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 52.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 19 contracts that pay $19.05 if it happens; $10 on NO at 47.5¢ buys about 21.1 that pay $21.05 if it does not.
$278,116 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $9,200 still riding on the outcome, making it number 148 by volume of the 224 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 52¢ means the market is pricing in a 52.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($278,116) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,200) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,423,764 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,460,391 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,305,873 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this marke
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-02-01, 115 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 52¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 48¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 52¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 52.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $278,116 in total traded volume and $9,200 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.