Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Reading the odds on this market
At 95.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 95.5% chance this happens, roughly 21.2 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.47 if it happens; $10 on NO at 4.5¢ buys about 222.2 that pay $222.22 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 4.7% if it wins, with the money locked up for 65 days until January 8, 2027; that works out to about 29.5% a year.
$761,890 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $49,244 still riding on the outcome, making it number 139 by volume of the 353 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 95¢ means the market is pricing in a 95.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($761,890) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($49,244) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,952,066 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,481,981 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,316,898 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-08, 65 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 95¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 5¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 95¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 95.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $761,890 in total traded volume and $49,244 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.