Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Reading the odds on this market
At 2.9¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 2.9% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 34.
$10 on YES buys about 339 contracts that pay $338.98 if it happens; $10 on NO at 97.0¢ buys about 10.3 that pay $10.30 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 3.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 88 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 13.2% a year.
$5,184,429 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $63,291 still riding on the outcome, making it number 56 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($5,184,429) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($63,291) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 5, 2026: $94,300 or above | 1¢ | $0 |
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 5, 2026: $75,699.99 or below | 1¢ | $0 |
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 5, 2026: $94,200 to 94,299.99 | 1¢ | $0 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 5¢ | $23,753,941 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $8,162,801 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 7¢ | $6,502,576 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 88 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $5,184,429 in total traded volume and $63,291 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.