Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
What resolves this contract
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offi
Reading the odds on this market
At 91.6¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 91.6% chance this happens, roughly 11.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $10.91 if it happens; $10 on NO at 8.4¢ buys about 119.8 that pay $119.76 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 9.1% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until October 5, 2026; that works out to about 6632063963376021.0% a year.
$99,597 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $33,492 still riding on the outcome, making it number 8 by volume of the 97 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 91¢ means the market is pricing in a 91.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,597) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($33,492) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 91¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 8¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 91¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 91.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,597 in total traded volume and $33,492 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.