Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
What resolves this contract
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r
Reading the odds on this market
At 6.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 6.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 17.
$10 on YES buys about 167 contracts that pay $166.67 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.0¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.64 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 6.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 10 days until October 5, 2026; that works out to about 856.8% a year.
$9,743 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $16,189 still riding on the outcome, making it number 116 by volume of the 206 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,743) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,189) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,743 in total traded volume and $16,189 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.