Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirec
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,649) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,761) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | 99¢ | $961,563 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,618 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? | 98¢ | $98,229 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirec
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 100 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,649 in total traded volume and $16,761 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.