world

Will Lauren Boebert resign by October 31, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-01 Volume$9,943 Open Interest$30,148
YES
4¢
Implied probability: 4.0%
NO
95¢
Implied probability: 96.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 4¢ · High 4¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
4¢
NO Price
95¢
Total Volume
$9,943
Open Interest
$30,148
Expiration
2026-11-01
Days Left
34
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lauren Boebert announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Lauren Boebert to resign or to announce her resi

Reading the odds on this market

At 4.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 4.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 25.

$10 on YES buys about 247 contracts that pay $246.91 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.0¢ buys about 10.4 that pay $10.42 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 4.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 34 days until November 2, 2026; that works out to about 55.9% a year.

$9,943 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $30,148 still riding on the outcome, making it number 71 by volume of the 205 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,943) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($30,148) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lauren Boebert announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Lauren Boebert to resign or to announce her resi

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 34 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,943 in total traded volume and $30,148 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-28. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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