Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
What resolves this contract
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolv
Reading the odds on this market
At 65.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 65.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.9 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 15 contracts that pay $15.27 if it happens; $10 on NO at 34.5¢ buys about 29.0 that pay $28.99 if it does not.
$9,833 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $4,589 still riding on the outcome, making it number 105 by volume of the 221 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 65¢ means the market is pricing in a 65.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,833) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,589) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 60¢ | $990,121 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 15¢ | $99,633 |
| Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | 16¢ | $98,891 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolv
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-29, 58 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 65¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 65¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 65.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,833 in total traded volume and $4,589 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.