Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
What resolves this contract
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 71 contracts that pay $71.43 if it happens; $10 on NO at 86.0¢ buys about 11.6 that pay $11.63 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 16.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 6 days until October 4, 2026; that works out to about 965233.9% a year.
$9,955 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $13,305 still riding on the outcome, making it number 69 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,955) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,305) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $972,345 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $966,831 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 5¢ | $99,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,955 in total traded volume and $13,305 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.