Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
What resolves this contract
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of N
Reading the odds on this market
At 10.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 10.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 10.
$10 on YES buys about 101 contracts that pay $100.50 if it happens; $10 on NO at 90.0¢ buys about 11.1 that pay $11.10 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 11.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 460 days until January 2, 2028; that works out to about 8.7% a year.
$9,981 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $10,315 still riding on the outcome, making it number 55 by volume of the 205 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 9¢ means the market is pricing in a 10.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,981) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,315) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $979,391 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $972,346 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 5¢ | $99,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of N
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 460 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 90¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 10.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,981 in total traded volume and $10,315 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.