Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying thi
Reading the odds on this market
At 93.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 93.0% chance this happens, roughly 13.3 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $10.75 if it happens; $10 on NO at 7.0¢ buys about 142.9 that pay $142.86 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 7.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 10 days until October 5, 2026; that works out to about 1313.7% a year.
$9,636 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $15,808 still riding on the outcome, making it number 150 by volume of the 210 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 93¢ means the market is pricing in a 93.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,636) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($15,808) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying thi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 93¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 7¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 93¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 93.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,636 in total traded volume and $15,808 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.