Will Drake be the third most streamed artist for 2026?
What resolves this contract
Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed artists (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market will resolve according to the third most-streamed Spotify artist for 2026. If Spotify does not release its third most-streamed artist for 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". If Spotify lists more than one artist as the third most-streamed artist, this market will resolve in favor of the artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this mark
Reading the odds on this market
At 21.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 21.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 47 contracts that pay $46.51 if it happens; $10 on NO at 78.5¢ buys about 12.7 that pay $12.74 if it does not.
$9,686 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $3,307 still riding on the outcome, making it number 152 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 21¢ means the market is pricing in a 21.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,686) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,307) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $96,901 |
| Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | 71¢ | $96,415 |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | 1¢ | $9,947 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed artists (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market will resolve according to the third most-streamed Spotify artist for 2026. If Spotify does not release its third most-streamed artist for 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". If Spotify lists more than one artist as the third most-streamed artist, this market will resolve in favor of the artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this mark
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-02-01, 123 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 21¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 21¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 21.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,686 in total traded volume and $3,307 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.