Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine
Reading the odds on this market
At 58.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 58.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.4 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 17 contracts that pay $17.09 if it happens; $10 on NO at 41.5¢ buys about 24.1 that pay $24.10 if it does not.
$9,782 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $28,371 still riding on the outcome, making it number 125 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 58¢ means the market is pricing in a 58.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,782) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($28,371) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,726,306 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 32¢ | $98,352 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 15¢ | $97,331 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-04, 35 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 58¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 42¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 58¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 58.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,782 in total traded volume and $28,371 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.