Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a displ
Reading the odds on this market
At 94.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 94.0% chance this happens, roughly 15.7 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $10.64 if it happens; $10 on NO at 6.0¢ buys about 166.7 that pay $166.67 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 6.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 4 days until October 1, 2026; that works out to about 28219.4% a year.
$9,926 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $978 still riding on the outcome, making it number 74 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 94¢ means the market is pricing in a 94.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,926) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($978) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $997,942 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,429 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 56¢ | $97,407 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a displ
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 4 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 94¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 6¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 94¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 94.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,926 in total traded volume and $978 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.