world

Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-07-01 Volume$96,500 Open Interest$12,794
YES
13¢
Implied probability: 13.0%
NO
87¢
Implied probability: 87.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 13¢ · High 13¢ · Δ -0.5pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
13¢
NO Price
87¢
Total Volume
$96,500
Open Interest
$12,794
Expiration
2027-07-01
Days Left
277
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-ac

Reading the odds on this market

At 13.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 13.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 8.

$10 on YES buys about 77 contracts that pay $76.92 if it happens; $10 on NO at 87.0¢ buys about 11.5 that pay $11.49 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 14.9% if it wins, with the money locked up for 277 days until July 2, 2027; that works out to about 20.1% a year.

$96,500 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $12,794 still riding on the outcome, making it number 39 by volume of the 199 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,500) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,794) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? 2¢ $975,971
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? 14¢ $99,618
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? 4¢ $99,534
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-ac

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-07-01, 277 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,500 in total traded volume and $12,794 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-27. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.