Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-ac
Reading the odds on this market
At 13.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 13.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 8.
$10 on YES buys about 77 contracts that pay $76.92 if it happens; $10 on NO at 87.0¢ buys about 11.5 that pay $11.49 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 14.9% if it wins, with the money locked up for 277 days until July 2, 2027; that works out to about 20.1% a year.
$96,500 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $12,794 still riding on the outcome, making it number 39 by volume of the 199 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,500) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,794) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 2¢ | $975,971 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,618 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 4¢ | $99,534 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-ac
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-07-01, 277 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,500 in total traded volume and $12,794 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.