Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?
What resolves this contract
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of vali
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 46¢ means the market is pricing in a 46.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,825) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,788) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 71¢ | $995,387 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 6¢ | $982,208 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $966,382 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of vali
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-20, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 46¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 53¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 46¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 46.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,825 in total traded volume and $3,788 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.