Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, inclu
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.6¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.6% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 68 contracts that pay $68.26 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.4¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.72 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 459 days until January 1, 2028; that works out to about 13.4% a year.
$9,814 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $2,992 still riding on the outcome, making it number 103 by volume of the 208 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,814) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,992) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $997,942 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | 99¢ | $987,054 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,429 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, inclu
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 459 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 85¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,814 in total traded volume and $2,992 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.