Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Ant
Reading the odds on this market
At 82.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 82.5% chance this happens, roughly 4.7 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $12.12 if it happens; $10 on NO at 17.5¢ buys about 57.1 that pay $57.14 if it does not.
$969,599 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $31,844 still riding on the outcome, making it number 9 by volume of the 219 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 82¢ means the market is pricing in a 82.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($969,599) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($31,844) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 2¢ | $998,638 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,706 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 1¢ | $99,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Ant
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 91 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 82¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 82¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 82.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $969,599 in total traded volume and $31,844 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.