Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market
Reading the odds on this market
At 61.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 61.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.6 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 16 contracts that pay $16.26 if it happens; $10 on NO at 38.5¢ buys about 26.0 that pay $25.97 if it does not.
$691,042 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $16,928 still riding on the outcome, making it number 146 by volume of the 210 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 61¢ means the market is pricing in a 61.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($691,042) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,928) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1¢ | $18,529,562 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 7¢ | $6,530,075 |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | 1¢ | $868,771 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-03-02, 146 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 61¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 38¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 61¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 61.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $691,042 in total traded volume and $16,928 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.