US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?
What resolves this contract
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
Reading the odds on this market
At 75.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 75.5% chance this happens, roughly 3.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 13 contracts that pay $13.25 if it happens; $10 on NO at 24.5¢ buys about 40.8 that pay $40.82 if it does not.
$9,902 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $51,585 still riding on the outcome, making it number 77 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 75¢ means the market is pricing in a 75.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,902) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($51,585) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 25¢ | $989,090 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 9¢ | $980,588 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | 4¢ | $976,991 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-04-01, 188 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 75¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 24¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 75¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 75.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,902 in total traded volume and $51,585 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.