U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.1¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.1% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 71 contracts that pay $71.17 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.9¢ buys about 11.6 that pay $11.63 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 16.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 96 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 77.8% a year.
$9,944 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $12,594 still riding on the outcome, making it number 66 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,944) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,594) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 1¢ | $974,738 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,618 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 4¢ | $99,534 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 96 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,944 in total traded volume and $12,594 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.