Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
What resolves this contract
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rend
Reading the odds on this market
At 33.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 33.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 30 contracts that pay $30.30 if it happens; $10 on NO at 67.0¢ buys about 14.9 that pay $14.93 if it does not.
$526,561 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $27,508 still riding on the outcome, making it number 143 by volume of the 209 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 33¢ means the market is pricing in a 33.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($526,561) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($27,508) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,460,081 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,460,402 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,305,889 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rend
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-08-01, 293 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 33¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 67¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 33¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 33.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $526,561 in total traded volume and $27,508 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.