Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifyin
Reading the odds on this market
At 10.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 10.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 10.
$10 on YES buys about 95 contracts that pay $95.24 if it happens; $10 on NO at 89.5¢ buys about 11.2 that pay $11.17 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 11.7% if it wins, with the money locked up for 96 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 52.5% a year.
$98,111 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $89,140 still riding on the outcome, making it number 28 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 10¢ means the market is pricing in a 10.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,111) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($89,140) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 1¢ | $974,738 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,618 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 4¢ | $99,534 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifyin
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 96 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 10¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 90¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 10¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 10.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,111 in total traded volume and $89,140 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.