Nothing Ever Happens: September
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal - Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire - Putin out as President of Russia - Fed rate cut - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_
Reading the odds on this market
At 99.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 99.0% chance this happens, roughly 99.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.10 if it happens; $10 on NO at 1.0¢ buys about 1,000.0 that pay $1,000.00 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 1.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until September 30, 2026; that works out to about 3818.8% a year.
$9,975 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $26,428 still riding on the outcome, making it number 50 by volume of the 208 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 99¢ means the market is pricing in a 99.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,975) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($26,428) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11¢ | $990,277 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $979,797 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 5¢ | $99,700 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal - Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire - Putin out as President of Russia - Fed rate cut - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 99¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 1¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 99¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 99.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,975 in total traded volume and $26,428 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.