world

Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-01-01 Volume$9,697 Open Interest$14,362
YES
10¢
Implied probability: 10.7%
NO
89¢
Implied probability: 89.3%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 10¢ · High 10¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
10¢
NO Price
89¢
Total Volume
$9,697
Open Interest
$14,362
Expiration
2027-01-01
Days Left
99
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nicușor Dan ceases to be the President of Romania for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nicușor Dan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice

Reading the odds on this market

At 10.7¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 10.7% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 9.

$10 on YES buys about 93 contracts that pay $93.46 if it happens; $10 on NO at 89.3¢ buys about 11.2 that pay $11.20 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 12.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 99 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 51.8% a year.

$9,697 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $14,362 still riding on the outcome, making it number 117 by volume of the 203 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 10¢ means the market is pricing in a 10.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,697) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,362) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nicușor Dan ceases to be the President of Romania for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nicușor Dan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 99 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 10¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 89¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 10¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 10.7% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,697 in total traded volume and $14,362 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-24. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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