Will Trump declare an election emergency: Before Nov 4, 2026?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.9¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.9% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 17.
$10 on YES buys about 168 contracts that pay $168.07 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.0¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.63 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 6.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 33 days until December 5, 2026; that works out to about 97.1% a year.
$1 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 351 by volume of the 354 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,990,400 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,618,534 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,926,208 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-05, 33 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.