What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026: $755 or lower?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 19 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published
Reading the odds on this market
At 9.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 9.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 11.
$10 on YES buys about 105 contracts that pay $105.26 if it happens; $10 on NO at 90.5¢ buys about 11.0 that pay $11.05 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 10.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 2 days until October 23, 2026; that works out to about 8158950339.1% a year.
$236 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 267 by volume of the 381 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 9¢ means the market is pricing in a 9.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($236) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 5¢ | $24,127,129 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $8,727,968 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 9¢ | $6,864,896 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 19 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-23, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 90¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 9.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $236 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.