WI-04 House Election Winner: Democratic Party
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these pa
Reading the odds on this market
At 97.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 97.5% chance this happens, roughly 38.2 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.26 if it happens; $10 on NO at 2.5¢ buys about 392.2 that pay $392.16 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 2.6% if it wins, with the money locked up for 3 days until November 6, 2026; that works out to about 2216.7% a year.
$10 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 324 by volume of the 362 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 97¢ means the market is pricing in a 97.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($10) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,992,400 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,618,534 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,926,211 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these pa
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-06, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 97¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 3¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 97¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 97.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $10 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.