US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Reading the odds on this market
At 7.6¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.6% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 13.
$10 on YES buys about 132 contracts that pay $131.58 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.4¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.82 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 8.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 51 days until January 2, 2027; that works out to about 76.1% a year.
$10,025 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 163 by volume of the 380 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($10,025) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 2¢ | $25,158,140 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $9,390,899 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 9¢ | $7,758,993 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 51 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $10,025 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.